Electric Vehicles

When discussing fossil fuels increasing the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, most Americans think of their cars.  So how much do they contribute, overall?  By switching to plug-in electric cars, how much will CO2 emissions decline?

Transportation causes 28.9% of U.S. emissions (2017). 60% of that is caused by cars and small trucks.  So that means 17% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions could be saved in that part of the problem.

The amount of actual energy to move vehicles is really quite small compared to the thermal energy in petroleum.  In fact, about 80% of the thermal energy is wasted.

With electric vehicles, inefficiencies show up in the charging circuitry and the batteries during the charge and discharge cycle, as well as in the small amount of heat given off by the motors.  A Ford Focus electric car gets 3.5 times more miles per gallon equivalent than the gasoline version.  That's about 30% of the energy of a gas car.  (note: Current MPGe ranges from 72 to 136 MPGe.)

U.S. transportation consumes about 5.95 quadrillion BTUs a year, or 1,740 billion kWh of energy.  (Note:  BTUs and kilowatt-hours are both units of energy.)   30% of that is 552 billion kWh.  Add transmission and distribution losses, and of electricity and 580 billion kWh is needed at the power plants to power all vehicles.  For just cars and light trucks, about 350 billion kWh is needed.

Total U.S. production of electricity is 4,178 billion kWh, so we need 8% more to power cars.   This adds about 2.5% to total emissions from all sources.  So the net reduction is 17% minus 2.5% or about 14.5%.  If we don't build new clean energy and that new energy comes from natural gas, then that emissions savings drops to 14%.

The cost of a new EV today is perhaps $10,000 more than a gas powered car.  Applied to all 250 million cars, that amounts to $2.5 trillion for just 14% of our problem.  If that level of spending were applied to the rest of carbon emissions, the cost would be $17.5 trillion.  Spread over 30 years, that's over half a trillion a year, nearly $100 a year per metric ton of CO2.  We may have the economy to suffer through that, but the rest of the world?  Forget it.

But we don't have to spend that much.  The $7,500 incentive to offset the higher cost of electric cars is just a kick starter, designed to get auto manufacturers into the business and lower the costs through mass production.  Since 2010, over a million EVs have been sold.  EVs are poised to take off, and by 2025 should be cost competitive with gasoline vehicles.  Significantly, a bi-partisan proposal in the Senate will extend the tax credit by raising the caps, while costing less than $16 billion total.

(For an interesting view of the production by various car makers month by month, see this animated graph.)

Once consumers become convinced electric cars are a cost effective choice, meets their range needs, and understand the benefits of ownership (like snappy acceleration, lower cost per mile, and reduced maintenance costs), the sales will pick up exponentially.  Initially, those wishing to buy a new second car, one they use for commuting and errands in town, will find a plug-in EV to be the best choice.  

Drivers' needs are mostly met by today's Electric cars.

Bottom line:  Be prepared to take a close look at EVs if you plan to buy a new car in the next few years.